SOHO/LASCO CME annual rate shows +31.2% excess near May 5 (±5 days) consistent with the Zwan-Wolf corridor conjunction mechanism

Analysis of 41,295 non-halo SOHO/LASCO CMEs (1996–2025) using equal-width 10-day bins reveals a peak in the CME rate at day-of-year 126 (May 5) with a +31.2% excess compared to the annual mean (1,483 observed vs 1,131 expected in the peak window). CME speed independently peaks in May. Solar Cycles 23 and 24 independently peak in April and May respectively. The May peak is 14 days earlier than the predicted corridor conjunction date (May 20) based on the Earth's ecliptic crossing of the galactic plane. The GOES X-ray flare rate (August peak) and SILSO SSN (September peak) do not show the May signal, consistent with the hypothesis that only fast coronal processes respond to annual galactic boundary pressure variations.

Assumptions

- The Zwan-Wolf mechanism operates at galactic scales analogously to the planetary-scale detection at Mars (Fowler et al. 2026)
- The May peak is not an artifact of the LASCO catalog methodology or solar cycle phase
- The 14-day offset from the predicted peak is within acceptable uncertainty
- The Zwan-Wolf mechanism operates at galactic scales analogously to the planetary-scale detection at Mars (Fowler et al. 2026)
- The May peak is not an artifact of the LASCO catalog methodology or solar cycle phase
- The 14-day offset from the predicted peak is within acceptable uncertainty

Open Questions

- Does the May CME peak replicate in independent CME catalogs (CACTUS, SEEDS, ARTEMIS)?
- What is the physical mechanism connecting galactic magnetic boundary flux tubes to enhanced CME production?

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